While driving down Townsend Avenue the other day, my watch buzzed. I shut it off, and it buzzed again. So, I pulled into the Y parking lot and opened my phone/watch thingie.

“Don’t you answer the phone when it rings? What are you, a Luddite?” said the caller. No, I am a Hoosier, in case you forgot. And, I am not going to answer the phone when I am driving in traffic. Besides, I knew it was you and knew you would wait a minute or so before devolving into a swivet.

"So, Ms. Pigette, how are you, this fine, but chilly morning?” I asked.

“OK, smart guy, have you seen the latest outrage from Washington?”

"Ya, I saw the TV coverage of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. I saw the Secret Service and other cops do what they are paid to do, and once again, they did it damn well. I am glad POTUS and others are OK, that the lawman who got shot is OK, and that they captured the knucklehead shooter.

"Did I miss something else? New Epstein stuff? Another SECDEF swing at the Pope, who happens to be the leader of 20% of the nation’s electorate?

“No. No,” she said. The latest Fox News poll says 70% of the nation believes the economy is getting worse. They say the president’s economic policies are hurting the economy, and the biggest telltale is gas prices.”

"You mean Fox, of all people, said we are finally paying attention to the elephant in the room? The closing of the Strait of Hormuz?" I asked. "I thought the SECDEF told us the Iranian Navy was at the bottom of the sea? How could they block the Strait when we sank their ships?

“It seems,” said Ms. P, “According to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Iran can block the Strait using, get this, Boston Whalers.” "Wait a minute," I told her. This third-string nation can stop the world’s commerce with a handful of Boston Whalers, right under the nose of a trio of U.S. Navy carrier groups?"

“Yeah,” said Ms. P. “It seems hundreds of tankers are bobbing around on anchor because their insurance carriers won’t cover possible damages in a war zone. And without insurance, the tanker owners won’t give the go-ahead, and, voila, the world oil market is stymied.”

"Humm," I said. "Does that mean POTUS and the Iranians are now playing chicken while Europe is running out of aviation fuel and one U.S. airline just hiked prices by 20%? Here at home, gas is $4 a gallon, and diesel fuel ($5.46) is back where it was four years ago. Didn’t he promise to keep prices down and avoid foreign wars?"

“Right - O - Mundo Grasshopper,” she said. “Why do you think the public is mad at the White House? The public is a lot of things, but stupid is not one of those.”

I thought for a moment and replied. "Is that why the pundits on both sides are starting to whisper that POTUS and his GOP myrmidons are getting very nervous? Is that why some of the smart commentators, like Heather Cox Richardson, say we are on the verge of a political tipping point? Is the public ready to throw the rascals out? What will that mean?"

“OK, Old Dog,” she laughed." If the Democrats win the House, they could flood the White House with subpoenas, and we might be back in impeachment land. And if the Senate flips, who knows what might happen. They would certainly block any new Supreme Court nominee,” she said.

"Now, Ms. P," I told her. "Before you get your knickers in a bunch, nothing is set in stone. Polls are guesses, not facts. While the latest statistics put both political parties even at about 27% of the electorate, the independents (45%) are the majority. And the independents could easily swing the result despite the organizational advantages of both parties and the waiting buckets of PAC cash ready to fuel friendly and not-so-friendly political TV ads.

“What about all the yard signs, phone calls and well-meaning neighbors knocking on doors asking for your vote? Don’t they count for anything? Doesn’t conventional political wisdom count for anything?” asked Ms. P.

"Maybe. Maybe. But the real political pros say you can’t buck a trend. And we all pay daily attention to the most effective political ad ever crafted. You know, the one that says 'Regular gas: $4.29.'"

“If it gets much higher, well ..."